基于数量柔性契约与Markov链的应急物资采购模型

突发灾害是以一定概率发生的随机事件,其状态总是不断发生转移,使政府已采购的应急物资在状态好转时易造成浪费,在状态持续恶化时难以满足突发需求,因此考虑突发灾害状态转移的应急物资采购策略对提升政府应急物资保障能力至关重要.本文将突发灾害状态转移过程视为一个有限次的齐次Markov链,构建了基于数量柔性契约的应急物资采购模型,分析了政企达成合作的条件与双方最优决策策略.采用数值计算与敏感性分析验证该模型的有效性,讨论了若干外生变量对政企最优决策策略与双方成本收益的影响,提出了重要的管理启示.结果表明,突发灾害状态转移情形下的应急物资采购模型既能提高政府应急物资保障能力,又可以保障企业合理收益与控制政府成本.     

大数据营销:综述与展望

随着追踪消费者足迹能力的增强,营销科学正经历着一场大数据的革命.为了了解大数据背景下消费者行为和营销战略的改变,此项研究结合近十余年大数据营销的有关文献,梳理了大数据营销的相关概念,类型及分析方法,并提炼出搜索、移动、口碑、数字化、APP和社会媒体等50个大数据营销的热门主题.在此基础之上,分别从互联网、社会网络、移动互联网、大数据和人工智能等四个阶段对大数据营销的研究进展进行回顾,最后围绕客户旅程,营销活动的量化评估和营销分析技术的开发三个方面对大数据营销的未来研究方向进行展望.     

Influence of γ' precipitate on deformation and fracture during creep in PM nickel-based superalloy

FGH96 is a powder metallurgy nickel based superally used for turbine disk of aero-engines. In the present study FGH96 alloy with four different γ' precipitate microstructures were produced via solution heat-treatment with different cooling rates, and the maximum cooling rate reached 400°C/min which was a super cooling rate for Nickel-based superalloy. The creep tests were conducted for PM FGH96 alloy under the testing condition of 704°C and 690 MPa. The relationship between the creep properties and the distribution of γ' precipitate was established. The creep mechanism was analyzed by using TEM and ACTEM, and the dislocation movement was studied at the atomic scale. The creep strain rate was calculated through a physically based crystal slip model established based on crystal plasticity. The calculated results were consistent with the test ones, illustrating the validity of the model. The fracture mechanism was also investigated, and the results showed that the creep cracks generated on the surface due to the oxidation. It was observed that the cracks propagated in different ways depending on the different average diameters of γ' precipitate. With the decrease of the average γ' precipitate size,the critical shearing stress increased and the resistance of the dislocation slipping increased. The fracture mechanism for the primary stage transformed from intragranular to intergranular due to the change of dislocation slipping.     

基于Kramers Kronig关系的油纸绝缘直流电导计算方法

针对区分介电谱中电导和极化过程的方法较为缺乏,等效模型中表征电导的参数唯一性计算方法不足的问题.以油纸绝缘介质的电导过程为研究对象,在实验条件下制备不同水分含量的油纸绝缘样品,并测量频域响应谱线.基于Kramers-Kronig关系对测量复极化率实部谱线进行数值积分,获得弛豫损耗谱线,进而得到电导损耗谱线;并使用最小二乘法对电导损耗谱线进行拟合,计算出电导值.研究结果表明,使用Kramers-Kronig变换可以从测量复极化率虚部谱线中有效分离弛豫损耗谱线和电导损耗谱线,进而得到直流电导值;随着油纸绝缘样品含水率增加,介电谱的损耗峰特征逐渐消失,电导过程增强.     

Projective Group Consensus of Multi-Agent Systems with Arbitrary Parameter

In this paper, the projective group consensus issue for second order multi-agent systems(MASs) in directed graphs with a dynamic leader is investigated. The proposed projective group consensus with arbitrary parameter includes traditional consensus, reverse group consensus and cluster consensus as its special cases. Novel distributed control protocols are designed to obtain projective group consensus without analyzing signed directed graph as in most current literatures on bipartite consensus problem. On the basis of Lyapunov stability property, algebraic graph and some necessary matrix theory, sufficient conditions for delay and delay-free cases are derived. Finally, simulations of nonlinear chaotic MASs are adopted to testify the theoretical results.     

石油市场和股票市场之间的尾部风险溢出效应——基于变分模态分解和动态Copula函数的研究

利用变分模态分解法将原始收益率序列分解为不同期限的子序列.基于动态Copula函数计算石油市场和股票市场之间的在险价值指标(VaR和CoVaR)，研究在极端下跌和极端上涨的市场情况下，国际石油市场与发达国家和新兴市场国家股票市场的短期和长期尾部风险溢出效应.实证研究结果表明，石油市场和股票市场之间存在双向的尾部风险溢出效应.首先在风险溢出的强度方面，石油市场对股票市场的尾部风险溢出效应明显比股票市场对石油市场的尾部风险溢出效应更强烈.其次在风险溢出的方向方面，股票市场对石油市场的尾部风险溢出效应均为正向，石油市场对大部分国家股票市场的上尾风险溢出效应为正向，且对全部国家股票市场的下尾风险溢出效应为正向.最后，石油市场和大部分国家股票市场之间的长期尾部风险溢出效应都比短期尾部风险溢出效应更强烈.研究结果有利于相关市场投资策略的制定和极端风险传染的防范.     

加快建设国家科研论文和科技信息高端交流平台

构建国家科研论文和科技信息高端交流平台是加强国家战略科技力量的重要举措之一.在系统梳理我国科研论文和科技信息交流平台建设现状的基础上,指出目前存在资源分散、规模尚小、重复建设、开放度低、专业性不足、功能不完善、交流不通畅等问题,缺乏吸纳全球科研成果的平台或载体,难以从创新链和产业链的角度整合技术供给体系,进而提出整合国家战略科技资源、构建系统深入的开放交流机制、提升交流平台的建设水平、充分发挥竞争情报人员作用和建立健全科研评价体系等对策建议,为我国未来高端交流平台的建设提供有益启示.     

新常态下制造业转型发展的创新路径探析

中国制造业转型发展的历程表明,自主创新是推动制造业发展壮大的根本动力,唯有自主创新才能获得有竞争力的核心技术.对外依赖过度、自主创新不足,合作机制不稳、平台搭建不牢,制度建设滞后,创新环境欠佳,是影响企业自主创新、制约产业转型发展的根本因素.正视技术创新中存在的现实问题,降低创新依赖、强化自主创新,健全合作机制、搭建创新平台,完善制度体系、优化创新环境,是新常态下推动中国制造业转型、实现"制造强国"战略的必然选择.     

Multifunctional artificial nacre via biomimetic matrix-directed mineralization

Natural nacre, one of the most studied biological structural materials with delicate hierarchical structures and extraordinary performance, has inspired the design and fabrication of artificial structural ceramics with high fracture toughness. However, to meet the diverse requirements of different applications, future structural materials must be multifunctional with superior mechanical properties, such as strength, hardness, and toughness. Herein, based on the matrix-directed mineralization method for producing biomimetic structural materials, we introduce nanoparticles with different inherent functions into the platelets of artificial nacre via the co-mineralization of aragonite and the nanoparticles. Besides their enhanced mechanical properties, the obtained artificial nacre materials also exhibit different functions depending on the type of the nanoparticles. To extend the versatility of this strategy, the effects of nanoparticles of different sizes and zeta potentials on mineralization are also analyzed. This universal strategy can be applied to the fabrication of other types of functionalized biomimetic structural ceramics that have potential applications in various fields, such as biomedical science.